India seems to be following the global trends of jobless growth. Time for some big moves.
India’s job system is broken – repair needed
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The Modi government came to power in 2014 on the promise of creating jobs for the youth and taking advantage of India’s favourable demographic dividend. The present government has so far presented three budgets since it came to power. However, it can be observed that every subsequent budget of this government has gradually shifted from a reformist to a populist one. A politically elected government obviously has certain dominant political compulsions which put the economy’s economic compulsions in the shadow as the government goes nearer to elections. The 2016-17 budget, by and large, reflected the Bihar elections defeat of the BJP, and the budget of 2017-18 seems to have been prepared with an eye on the state assembly elections, and also under the influence of the reality that the government would be facing the 2019 elections in about two years from now. The government has however, admirably stuck to the fiscal discipline, with some minor slippages. Budgets are predominantly meant to signal the direction of the economic policy. The first budget of the present government showed its intent to transform India and focused on the key transformation issues of infrastructure and devolution of funds to states. The present budget was presented in the backdrop of demonetization move of the government. There are no figures to prove whether the move achieved its objectives. Growth forecasts have drastically slumped. Read a detailed Hindi article on Jobs Scenario. The budget should have announced measures to revive the economy from its current situation. But the budget has failed to do that. It would require the next two years for the economy to be back on track. So shall we say that they are wasted years? The NPA problem of PSU banks is becoming more and more dangerous with each passing day. We have the example of America, where a similar problem took a very heavy toll of their economy from which it is still struggling. The government calls the rating agencies as biased, but with declining private investment, increasing NPAs and uncertainty created by demonetization, the task of the rating agencies seems to have been cut out.
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