China's OBOR - CPEC problem

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China is trying hard to convince the Indians to come on board the OBOR bandwagon. India seems in no mood to oblige.

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China’s communist regime has ambitious plans for the OBOR and CPEC. But with India unhappy about its territorial integrity’s violation in Gilgit-Baltistan region, things have become very tricky. Both China and Pakistan want India to join CPEC rather than oppose it. 

 The $ 54 billion worth CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor), passing through the Gilgit-Baltistan region of J & K, joining Baluchistan’s Gwadar port with China’s Xinjiang provience, is considered both by China and Pakistan to be a game-changer. As an answer to CPEC, India has pushed ahead refurbishment of Chabahar port and construction of railways in Iran. The general perception on India’s opposition in China and Pakistan is that India wants only to secure geopolitical mileage and is opposed to any initiative aimed at economic transformation of Pakistan. Nothing could be more wrong! $ 27 billion of the CPEC resources have been allocated to undertake 18 power projects. The goal is to create a stable electricity and logistics environment for an export manufacturing economy in Pakistan. China has now started peddling a new idea – CPEC’s main competitor is ‘Make in India’. Now China is desperate to get India’s support in CPEC, as otherwise the entire project can get tangled in complexities. Hence, the Chinese lawyers and authors are on an overdrive! 
  • China’s new logic # 1 : Due to a huge increase in blue-collar wages in China every seven years, factories are either likely to stay in China with heavy automation, or shift to other Asian countries. For Asian countries including India and Pakistan, capturing the relocated manufacturing is crucial. 
  • China’s new logic # 2 : China has a huge lead in textiles alone, shipping $ 274 billion in exports annually against India’s $ 40 billion, the second largest exporter. Even if India can take the major share of textile exports, it would create more direct jobs than the 3.7 million jobs currently in Indian IT and BPO industries.
  • China’s new logic # 3 : India has almost 1 million new job seekers every month. With more and more industries rapidly shifting to automation, the BPO and IT workforce would shrink by 5 lakh jobs in the next five years. 
  • China’s new logic # 4 : 12 fast-tracked electricity projects under CPEC are slated for completion in 2018. This will allow shifting of Chinese state-owned companies to Pakistan with generous Chinese financing
  • China’s new logic # 5 : The pace of progress in infrastructure sector in India is comparatively slower. This would slow down the speed of ‘Make in India’ further. On the other hand, Pakistan’s manufacturing growth will be strengthened by Chinese logistical support. It remains to be seen how India will react. Pakistan’s continued recalcitrance against India is serious trouble, and with China showing zero respect for India’s concerns, things may get stuck. 
Read more about Regional Conflicts here, and about view video analyses on Regional Politics here.

     
 


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Bodhi Booster: China's OBOR - CPEC problem
China's OBOR - CPEC problem
China is trying hard to convince the Indians to come on board the OBOR bandwagon. India seems in no mood to oblige.
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